Covid More than eight months and 900,000 deaths into the COVID-19 pandemic,168Coronavirus Resource Center, Johns Hopkins University & Medicine, September 18, 2020, coronavirus.jhu.edu. is blind to contagious new virus variant, scientists warn, New York Times, January 6, 2021, nytimes.com. On another front, there is hope that wider use of the oral therapeutics paxlovid and molnupiravir will further decrease the number of severe cases,36Pfizer Shares In Vitro Efficacy of Novel COVID-19 Oral Treatment Against Omicron Variant, Pfizer, January 18, 2022, Pfizer.com.37Merck expects COVID-19 pill molnupiravir to be effective against Omicron, Reuters, January 11, 2022, reuters.com. The drugs are more likely to be effective if taken within five days of symptom onset,68Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics provide update, November 26, 2021; Pfizers novel COVID-19 oral antiviral treatment candidate, November 5, 2021. requiring an efficient pathway from diagnosis to prescription and distribution. Its not clear when use in children will be indicated. V Chng Ti | Tin Tc Nam An | CDC Health Advisory: Using Therapeutics to Prevent and Treat COVID-19, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), December 31, 2021, emergency.cdc.gov; Berkeley Lovelace, Jr., Covid pills are easier to find as the Omicron surge subsides, NBC News, February 23, 2022, nbcnews.org. Although advances in detecting and treating COVID-19 lead the news less frequently than they did a year ago, important developments continue to emerge. Coronavirus (COVID-19) at a glance 2 June 2022 | Australian COVID-19 Projections - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation These events and findings have raised new questions about when the pandemic will end. While many people are acquiring natural immunity through infection, variants with enhanced transmissibility, if they predominate among all strains, could increase the proportion of people who need to be simultaneously immune to achieve herd immunity by ten to 20 percentage points, and increase vaccine coverage levels needed to 65 to 80 percent of the population (or 78 to 95 percent of those over 12 years old).141Based on a reproduction number (R0) of 2.4 for the original strain and assuming that the herd immunity threshold can be approximated using the formula 1- (1/R0). A new dominant variant will receive a Greek-letter name, but until then we have created more descriptive names for our scenarios. These factors, combined with limited behavior change from pandemic-weary populationsand the twin accelerants of transmission, holiday travel and gatheringsmeant that Omicron moved through the population with remarkable speed. Having suffered a wave of cases caused by the Delta variant during June and the first few weeks of July, the country delayed plans to ease many public-health restrictions and eventually did so on July 19, though expansive testing and genomic surveillance remain in place. On the other hand, if vaccine uptake is fast, New Zealand might achieve a longer-lasting vaccine-based herd immunity. As populations get closer to this state, it may be helpful to introduce some nuance to what we mean by the term. In this update, we review the most recent findings, look deeper at five implications of the ongoing scientific research, and discuss why our timeline estimates have not shifted meaningfully. "It seems national cabinet is prepared to bet that a massive Omicron outbreak won't cause large numbers of hospitalisations," Australian Medical Association president Omar Khorshid said on Thursday. Super discrimination worsens for women as the gender gap widens in key age groups, King Charles coronation is almost upon us. House prices will continue to rise. Since the winter of 2021, this is Omicron for most countries, and we consider immunity against BA.1 and BA.2 rather than the more recent subvariants. If you look at it now, its more like 40 deaths a day. A behavioral threshold for endemicity would come when fluctuations in disease burden cause only minimal change in individuals economic and social behavior. These therapeutics, including both small-molecule and antibody treatments, have helped blunt the incidence of severe disease in places where they are widely available. While COVID-19 reinfection is documented but rare, there are now population-level studies that question the durability of immunity. This data will be published in 2022 and will show that Australians had even fewer kids during COVID there will be no coronavirus baby boom. After months of sheltering behind borders and lockdowns, Australia can no longer escape the sort of numbers we used to scoff at overseas despite our nationwide vaccination rate of more than 90 per cent. Salma Khalik, Moving from Covid-19 pandemic to endemic: Singapores strategy and how it can unfold,, Frances Mao, Fortress Australia: Why calls to open up borders are meeting resistance, BBC News, May 26, 2021, bbc.com; Meena Thiruvengadam, New Zealand to keep its borders closed through the end of 2021,. Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers and statistics For COVID-19, it can be generally thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by a single case in a population in which all people are susceptible. Time traveller reveals predictions for 2022, including new Covid Emerging data on these antibodies suggest that they can reduce the need for hospitalization of high-risk patients, and hold potential for post-exposure prophylaxis.154Laura DeFranceso, COVID-19 antibodies on trial, Nature, October 2020, nature.com; Coronavirus (COVID-19) update, FDA, November 2020. If the experience of South Africa were to be repeated elsewhere, we could see a continued rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases as Omicron is established. While Australia is busy combatting the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron strains, new data has emerged about the initial BA.2 outbreak. Here we review five implications; each has helped refine our probability estimates for the COVID-19 pandemic timeline. Among high-income countries, cases caused by the Delta variant reversed the transition toward normalcy first in the United Kingdom, during June and July of 2021, and subsequently in the United States and elsewhere. From Q4 2020 to Q1 2021 the probability of herd immunity is negligible. Our analysis offers some scenarios to understand potential outcomes. We cant say whether 2022 will see such events but we know that they are statistically more likely. Note that immunity against symptomatic disease (not any disease) is what we try to assess; we dont estimate a communitys threshold for herd immunity, as that would be driven by both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. Broadly speaking, availability will be similar to that of the United Kingdom and the United States, but EU countries may need to wait a few months longer to vaccinate all adults. The decline in the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines over time and the benefits of booster doses have become much better understood over the past three months. Delta variant, August 6, 2021; The war has changed: Internal CDC document, July 29, 2021; CDC internal report, July 30, 2021; The Delta variant isnt as contagious, August 11, 2021. Three factors lead us to believe that timelines for herd immunity and transition toward normalcy in the United Kingdom will be similar to those in the United States. The United Kingdom appears to be making this shift now (though cases there were increasing as of this writing). Sivan Gazit et al., SARS-CoV-2 naturally acquired immunity vs. vaccine-induced immunity, reinfections versus breakthrough infections: A retrospective cohort study,. And will booster uptake continue to slow in each subsequent round of boosting? That's an approach that will continue in 2023, with a national COVID-19 plan outlining an approach based on an informed community taking the lead on protection, alongside vaccine supply certainty and a focus on taking the pressure off hospitals. "I think that the practicality and the feasibility outweighs any potential benefit of implementing those sort of measures," Dr Griffin said. These approaches could reduce mortality in the short term by broadening access, but they could also delay herd immunity if, for example, a delayed second dose reduces efficacy. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/covid-omicron-cognitive-leap-into-2022/100734564. In any scenario for the future of the COVID-19 pandemic, much depends on the ways in which societies respond. Paxlovid and other COVID-19 therapeutics are now widely available in high-income countries. That could happen if a real or perceived safety issue increases hesitancy or if younger populations see little reason to be vaccinated once older cohorts are protected and a transition toward normalcy is well underway. This will be driven by a combination of early vaccine rollout (which, being directed first at those at greatest risk, should reduce deaths faster than cases), seasonality, increasing natural immunity, and stronger public-health response. Three levers are likely to be especially important, starting with the extent to which countries can effectively scale and make available new oral therapeutics with the potential to reduce the chance of progression to severe disease, and which are unlikely to be blunted by Omicron. While the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States have had broadly similar COVID-19 experiences, other parts of the world look very different. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Jacqui Wise, Covid-19: Pfizer BioNTech vaccine reduced cases by 94% in Israel, shows peer reviewed study, BMJ, February 25, 2021, Volume 372, Number 8282 bmj.com; Benjamin Mueller, Vaccines sharply cut coronavirus hospitalization, U.K. studies show,. Daniel R. Felkin, Melissa M. Higdon, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, et al., Duration of effectiveness of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease: results of a systematic review and meta-regression,. Others have also advanced this view; for an example, see Grady McGregor, Evidence mounts that Omicron is more infectious, less severe than Deltabut Fauci, other experts warn against premature optimism, Fortune, December 6, 2021. As growth in the regions continues, local councils must make enough land available to accommodate the increased demand for housing. It is lost both gradually, with the passage of time, and suddenly, when a new variant that evades the immunity afforded by vaccination or previous infection becomes dominant (as happened with the emergence of Omicron in late 2021). Isolated cases may still occurindeed, the virus may continue to circulate for one or more quarters after herd immunity is reached. They have typically maintained tight border restrictions and a strong public-health response to imported cases. Many workplaces remain relatively cautious in their policies,30Stephan Kahl, Damian Shepherd, Faris Mokhtar, Claire Che, Nic Querolo, Sarah Holder and Natalie Wong, Omicron Suddenly Upends the Worlds Return to the Office, Bloomberg, December 20, 2021, bloomberg.com. Mainly comprising most lower-income and many middle-income countries, this is a group of nations that have not yet gained access to enough vaccine doses to cover a large portion of their populations. The safety records of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines appear promising so far (no serious side effects reported), but the coming months will provide a fuller picture as the sample size grows. But Omicron-specific boosters (especially to address BA.4 and BA.5) could potentially emerge this autumn and significantly enhance the efficacy of vaccines against the predominant strain.9Peter Marks, Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: FDA recommends inclusion of Omicron BA.4/5 component for COVID-19 vaccine booster doses, US Food and Drug Administration, June 30, 2022. 7. In practice, a herd-immunity threshold is complicated and varies by setting. Its possible that unforeseen developments such as significantly more infections than expected this winter could lead to earlier herd immunity. "Those simple things, if we get that right, then the impact of this virus that isn't going to go awaywill be significantly reduced," he said. Australias largest generation reaches the family In the process Millennials will hipsterfy suburbia, the urban fringe, and regional Australia. We hope that our perspectives prove useful to leaders as they set policy and strategy; we will continue to update the series. The proportion of the population with effective immunity from COVID-19 vaccines is estimated from historical, reported vaccine administration data (both completed second doses and boosters); rates of vaccine effectiveness against Omicron reported in published literature; rates of waning vaccine immunity reported in published literature; and a generalized assumption that older individuals received COVID-19 vaccines before younger ones did. Three main factors determine the real-world impact of any new SARS-CoV-2 variant: the extent to which it can evade the immunity developed by those who have been vaccinated or previously infected by other variants, its inherent infectiousness (often expressed as a higher basic reproduction number, or R0), and the severity of disease caused.55Ewen Callaway and Heidi Ledford, How bad is Omicron? making it possible to protect a group that comprises a significant share of the population in some countries. Theyre hoping theyll be able to get it approved around August When that comes out, it will definitely be worthwhile.. Data so far are mixed on the severity of the disease it causes: some early findings have pointed toward a mild clinical course, while other evidence has suggested that Omicron may lead to more frequent hospitalization in children than other variants do.53Implications of the further emergence and spread of the SARS CoV-2 B.1.1.529 variant of concern (Omicron) for the EU/EEA first update, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), December 2, 2021; Loni Prinsloo, Toddlers make up 10% of hospital cases in Omicron epicenter, Bloomberg, November 29, 2021. Immunity each day is considered with respect to the dominant variant in circulation in the population in each country. Based on a range of likely vaccine scenarios and the fact that those with prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2 will still be eligible for vaccination, every ten percentage-point increase in seroprevalence could roughly translate into a one-month acceleration of the timeline to the epidemiological endpoint. Yes, its no longer an absolute acute emergency like it was, because we have a large percentage of our population vaccinated and weve got better treatments. While COVAX and other access initiatives are working to close the gap, many low-income countries may not receive enough doses to vaccinate all adults until well into 2022.128More than 85 poor countries will not have widespread access to coronavirus vaccines before 2023, Economist Intelligence Unit, January 27, 2021, eiu.com. In this article, well explain the criteria that will be key factors in determining when each is reached. SARS-CoV-2 and Surface (Fomite) Transmission for Indoor Community Environments. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Exhibit 1 assumes a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.4 and uses a standard formula to arrive at an estimated herd-immunity threshold of 58 percent. Subscribe for free to get the latest breaking news and analysis sent to your inbox. Of course, the low rate of severe COVID-19 in this age group means that the impact on pediatric mortality will be small. First, the term relatively favorable needs qualification. As cases decline, our analysis suggests that the United States, Canada, and the European Union could restart the transition toward normalcy as early as the fourth quarter of 2021, provided that the vaccines used in these countries continue to be effective at preventing severe cases of COVID-19. A transition toward normalcy would be driven by a combination of seasonality aiding a decline in cases and early vaccine doses helping reduce mortality by protecting those at greatest risk of serious illness. In reality, people mix mostly with others whose patterns of interaction are similar to their own. For example, the COVID-19 death rate per capita in the past month for the United States is 50 percent higher than Argentinas and ten times greater than the Philippines.44Mortality risk of COVID-19, Our World in Data, ourworldindata.org. 16. Anna Engberg, COVID-19: Vaccine mandate enforced in Austria, Healthcare IT News, February 1, 2022, healthcareitnews.com. The other variables will also have much to say about the timeline to reach herd immunity (see sidebar, Key factors affecting the timeline to herd immunity). Levels of natural immunity from prior infection vary within the European Union but are generally in the same range as in the United Kingdom and the United States.125SeroTracker, last accessed March 15, 2021, serotracker.com. Re-engaging the community with vaccination messages will also be important next year. But he pointed to a number of potential factors. Yair Goldberg et al., Waning immunity after the BNT162b2 vaccine in Israel,. Lockdown: Boris Johnson unveils plan to end England restrictions by 21 June, February 22, 2021. Covid-19 vaccine: First person receives Pfizer jab in UK, BBC, December 8, 2020, bbc.com/news. Five additional criteria will also contribute to the transition to a form of normalcythe more of these that are achieved, the faster the milestone is likely to be reached: Both the epidemiological and normalcy ends to the COVID-19 pandemic are important. Nationwide commercial laboratory seroprevalence survey, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, accessed November 15, 2020, covid.cdc.gov. The pace at which governments relax public-health measures will be critical. Eyewitness News, Coronavirus vaccine updates: Scientists concerned over New York's escape variant, ABC, Inc., WABC-TV New York, March 16, 2021, abc7ny.com. BA.5 appears to [be] infecting the lungs, whereas the BA.2 mainly infects the upper airways. "People should expect, if they're not recently vaccinated, they are fully susceptible as they were in 2020 to catching COVID, and that's probably going to be the biggest driver of the waves that we see over the next 12 months orso," he said. All else being equal, countries with a higher proportion of more-infectious variantsassuming they increase public-health measures to handle themare likely to achieve herd immunity later. Today, nearly every country finds itself in a similar position. They are keen to travel, spend time with the grandkids, and feel its their time now. But a new national antibody study says these mammoth figures could have been the tip of an iceberg, with the real number of COVID infections perhaps up to double what was initially reported. Several clinicians in South Africa have noted the apparently mild presentation of Omicron cases.61Fareed Abdullah, Tshwane district Omicron variant patient profile - early features, South African Medical Research Council, December 8, 2021. On the last day of December, that was starting to look optimistic, with the 20,000 mark already broken, well One size doesnt fit all. The pandemics two endpoints, a transition toward normalcy and herd immunity, may look different in different places. While 96 per cent of Australians aged 16 years or older have had the recommended two vaccine doses, only just over 70 per cent have had a third dose to boost their protection against severe illness. Francesco Guarascio, Moderna eyes COVID booster by August, not clear yet if Omicron-specific needed, Reuters, February 17, 2022, reuters.com. A fair bit of this disposable income will be used to make the family home more liveable. Patrick Durkin BOSS Deputy editor. : TransmissibilityDelta is significantly more transmissible than either the ancestral COVID-19 variant or other variants. Threshold for achieving herd immunity 22. "I was close to calling an ambulance on the third day because of breathlessness.". Struggling main streets are terrible for towns and neighbourhoods.